Sydney: 100 million years ago - 100 million years in the future

The continent of Australia has undergone some significant changes in terms of geographic location in the past 100 million years and is expected to experience changes that are just as drastic 100 million years into the future. 100 million years ago, Sydney was located in the high latitudes in the southern hemisphere around 70 degrees south. The longitude during this time was around 75 degrees east. Consequently, this would cause snow and polar ice caps to be present most of the year, if not year round because of the limited sunlight the area would receive along with the extreme frigid temperatures during the long winter nights. Since it was located in the polar region, it would be dry and arid with a low sun angle and a high albedo, resulting in a significant cold reservoir. Sydney was still located on the east coast of Australia, so it had a maritime climate. Since Sydney was so high in latitude, the climate must have been much colder as it would have been dominated by the Continental Antarctic air mass along with the Maritime Polar. Sydney also would have been affected by the Polar High atmospheric circulation pattern, which produces little precipitation year round, which is much different than the current conditions of Sydney. Below is an image of the earth 100 million years ago and Sydney is indicated by the small red dot down by Antarctica.

The red dot in this photo represents where I believe Sydney was 100 million years ago
Click on the image to zoom in!
Image obtained from: http://www.cpgeosystems.com/mollglobe.html

100 million years from now, Sydney will move north and collide with Indonesia. Sydney will move right up to the equator and eventually into the northern hemisphere. I believe the future location of Sydney in 100 million years from now will be around 0 degrees north and around 170 degrees west. This will produce significant changes in the climate of Sydney resulting in more moisture from greater latent heat. Also, the sun's rays will hit the surface at a perpendicular angle, resulting in greater radiation. The albedo will be low because there will be a high absorption rate and greater conduction and convection that will take place. Instead of having winter in June and July and summer in December and January, Sydney will experience winter in December and January and summer in June and July. This means that most of its precipitation will come during the winter months of January and February instead of the summer months of June and July. In 100 million years from now when Sydney is on the equator, it will experience much more heat and precipitation than it currently experiences. The ITCZ will play an important role in the air circulation patterns, which will produce changes in the climate. The major air mass that will dominate the climate will be the Maritime Equatorial, which is a warm air mass. Sydney will still have a maritime climate since it will remain on the coast, but the water will be much warmer considering it is in the tropics.

The red dot in this photo is where I believe Sydney will be in 100 million years from now.
As you can see, it has moved north quite a bit and is now right on the equator.
Image obtained from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGACbD4zbWs
Click to see the animation from present day to 100 million years in the future

This is a climagraph showing present day precipitation and temperatures for Sydney, Australia

Image obtained from: www.weatherzone.com.au

This is a climagraph I generated showing the estimated average monthly precipitation
 and average daily temperature for Sydney 100 million years ago. I used the present day figures from
McMurdo Station, Antarctica because it is roughly in the same area and I think it would have
 had similar conditions as Sydney 100 million years ago.
Data obtained from: www.coolantarctica.com

This is a climagraph I generated showing the estimated average monthly precipitation 

and average daily temperature for Sydney 100 million years into the future. I used the present day figures from Tarawa, located at 1°28'N, 173°2'E, which is where I roughly expect Sydney to be in 100 million years.
Data obtained from: www.weatheronline.co.uk

There were several climate controls that affected Sydney 100 million years ago. Some macro-scale controls included the position of earth relative to the sun and the distribution of land and water on the surface. There were also some meso-scale climate controls that would have affected Sydney 100 million years ago including its proximity to the water since it was on the coast. Another affect would have been the atmospheric circulation patterns with the presence of the Polar High and the air mass dominance of the Continental Antarctic and the Maritime Polar.
Furthermore, I would expect there to be other climate controls that will be affecting Sydney 100 million years into the future. As far as macro-scale goes, the position of the earth relative to the sun will always play a factor along with the distribution of land and water on the surface. A meso-scale control would be its' location being close to the ocean. The Maritime Equatorial air mass will dominate the region and the seasonal fluctuations of the ITCZ will play a vital role in the future climate of Sydney. The Asian monsoon will come into play, which brings about a seasonal change in wind direction with the ITCZ being pulled northward in the northern Hemisphere summer due to the large land mass of the continent of Asia.

This picture shows the seasonal flucuations of the ITCZ.
100 million years from now, Sydney will be right in the middle of the ITCZ
Image obtained from: www.geology.um.maine.edu

In conclusion, I believe my climagraphs show an accurate portrayal of the potential climates 100 million years ago and 100 million years into the future. Due to the fact that Australia will be moving north rapidly, the average precipitation and the average temperatures will change dramatically along with the seasons. 100 million years ago, Sydney experienced average daily temperatures for July around -25 degrees Celsius. 100 million years from now, I expect that figure to rise to  around 29 degrees Celsius considering it is moving northward to the equator. Furthermore, sticking with July, precipitation will go from being around 17mm for the month of July 100 million years ago, to being around 160mm for July 100 million years from now. Clearly, Sydney has experienced some drastic climatic changes in the past coming from the frigid Antarctic and will experience even more into the future as it moves toward the warm equator.  

Climatology of Sydney compared to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

As you can imagine, the climate of Sydney is vastly different than the climate of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Ulaanbaatar is located in the interior of the continent, so it has a typical continental climate that experiences continentality with drastic diurnal temperature fluctuations. From October to April, the temperature is much below 0 degrees celsius and from May to September, the temperature can reach as high as 33 degrees celsius. Sydney is not as extreme because the temperature and climate is regulated by the presence of the Pacific Ocean. The city experiences a temperate climate with temperature changes that are not as drastic as Ulaanbaatar. According to the climagraphs, the coldest it gets in Sydney is around 3 degrees celsius in June. The coldest it gets in Ulaanbaatar is -25 degrees celsius in January. The warmest it gets in Ulaanbaatar is 22 degrees celsius in July and 45 degrees celsius in January in Sydney. Sydney is located in the Southern Hemisphere, while Ulaanbaatar is located in the Northern Hemisphere. This is why we see the coldest temperatures in Sydney in July and the coldest temperatures in Ulaanbaatar is January. As far as precipitation goes, the wettest month for Sydney is June with around 135mm of precipitation. The wettest month for Ulaanbaatar is in August with around 85mm of precipitation.

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Image obtained from: http://people.eku.edu

Sydney, Australia
Image obtained from: www.destination360.com

As you can see in these two pictures, these two climates are drastically different and thus, are classified very differently. According to the Koppen - Geiger Climate Classification, Ulaanbaatar is classified as a Dwc climate. This means it's main climate is snow with dry winters and cool summers. Sydney on the other hand is classified as Cfb, which is a warm temperate climate that is fully humid and has warm summers. These two cities are located in drastically different regions, so the climates are very different.

Check out Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia!

Below are some climagraphs to help illustrate some of the differences in the climates of the two locations.

Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

This is the annual precipitation for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Image obtained from: www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/

This is the annual temperatures for Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Image obtained from: www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/

This is a climagraph showing precipitation and temperatures for Sydney, Australia
Image obtained from: www.weatherzone.com.au

Climatology of Sydney

According to the Koppen - Geiger Climate Classification map, Sydney's climate is classified as Cfb, which is a warm temperate climate that is fully humid and has a warm summer. There are several meso-scale climate controls that have an affect on the city of Sydney. Geographically, Sydney is situated in a coastal basin and in very close proximity to the Pacific Ocean. This is why Sydney has a "fully humid" climate. The ocean moderates the climate of Sydney significantly. There is ample water vapor available so the relative humidity increases with the temperature being warm. The fact that Sydney has a warm and temperate climate is very important to it having the ability to be "fully humid." Orographically speaking, there is a mountain range about 2 hours southwest of Sydney. This range is known as the Blue Mountains. Most of the precipitation that occurs in the Blue Mountains is on the western slope much like the Rocky Mountains here in Colorado. Once the moist air from the Southern Ocean comes across the southern tip of Australia, it rises due to orographic uplift. Then the air cools and condenses, producing precipitation. Once the air has dropped its precipitation, it flows down the leeward side of the mountains leaving warm descending air for the Sydney basin. Since Sydney is situated on the eastern and leeward side of the Blue Mountains, it experiences descending air that is warming adabatically at the dry adabatic lapse rate. Due to the presence of the Pacific Ocean, Sydney is dominated by the Maritime Tropical air mass. This warm moist air invades Sydney, which is the reason for the warm and humid climate.
Some micro - scale climate controls around Sydney would include the urban heat island effect that is produced from industrial manufacturing along with the large presence of automobiles that both give off heat. Also, my weather station is located right on the coast of Botany Bay, which is right where an airport is. This may cause excessive heating from anthropogenic sources such as the pollution the airplanes produce and it probably is an area of increased smog due to the presence of the airport. The average precipitation for the month of November in Sydney is 0.00 inches and there have been no changes in the precipitation record for November going back to 1996. As far as temperature is concerned, the average mean temperature in Sydney in November in 1996 was 66 degrees Fahrenheit. The average mean temperature in November in Sydney in 2011 is 70 degrees Fahrenheit. The average mean temperature fluctuates some, but mainly stays in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

Below are some images to help illustrate some of the meso - scale climate controls affecting Sydney. Also look to the right to see a live webcam of Potts Point and the CBD of Sydney.

The Blue Mountains outside of Sydney. This formation is known as the Three Sisters at Echo Point
Image obtained from: http://www.toursydneyaustralia.com

Use the interactive webcam to view the Blue Mountains

This is a satellite image of the Sydney area with the coastal basin to
the north by the airport and CBD and the Blue Mountains to the southwest by the Georges river.
My weather location is right in Botany Bay by the airport, which is labeled in the image.
Also the famous natural Sydney Harbour is very visible as well.
Image obtained from: www.australian1.com

This is a chart the annual amount of rainfall and a
 graph of the annual temperatures for Sydney.
Image obtained from: www.weatherzone.com.au

These are the conditions for the month of November in 2011.
Obtained from: www.wunderground.com

These are the conditions for the month of November in 1996.
Obtained from: www.wunderground.com

Sydney and Denali National Park, AK

As you might assume, the weather and climate of Sydney is much different than that of Denali National Park in Alaska. Sydney is mainly dominated by the Tropical Maritime Tasman air mass. Conversely, the Maritime Polar and Continental Polar air masses control Denali. The climate of Sydney is a temperate coastal climate, while the climate of Denali is a mix between transitional maritime and continental climates. 

Below are a few images to illustrate the differences of landscape between Denali and Sydney

Denali National Park
Image obtained from: travelmuse.com

Sydney, Australia
Image obtained from: beautifulplacestovisit.com

These two geographical locations are very different. Sydney is located at 34 degrees south and 151.2 degrees east, while Denali is located a 63.6 degrees north and 150.9 degrees west. The elevation of the two regions is very different as well with Sydney lying around 10 feet and Denali at 1932 feet. Needless to say, they experience vast differences in their weather and climate. Sydney's climate is regulated by the surrounding ocean, while Denali is more in the interior of Alaska, so it experiences some continentality. Denali is a very mountainous region with rugged terrain, while Sydney lies in a coastal basin. Snow is a regular site in Denali, but a rarity in Sydney. Temperatures do drop in Sydney when cold polar air is brought up from Antarctica, but nothing like the extreme cold Denali experiences. Much of the moist air that is brought up from the south and Antarctica rises due to orographic uplift over the Snowy mountains just outside of Sydney. The air condenses and drops most of its moisture in the mountains. Once the air crosses the Snowy mountains, it is dry and descends and warms at the dry adiabatic lapse rate as it runs down the leeward side of the mountains. This leaves dry air that is warmer for the Sydney basin. Denali experiences a combination of two air masses that produce interesting weather. These two air masses that dominate Denali (cP and mP) experience orographic uplift and come together at the top of the Denali mountain range where Mt. McKinley is located and produce some significant weather. The continental polar air mass is to the north, which is stable, cold, dry air that is high pressure. The maritime polar air mass lies to the south and has more moisture from the ocean and is not as cold, but it is unstable. Average temperatures in Denali range from negative single digits to mid 60's according to the Denali National Park Headquarters. Averages temperatures in Sydney are more moderate and range from the upper 70's in summer to the mid 40's in winter. 

Denali weather station and blog that I compared Sydney to: Denali National Park Blog

Currently, Denali is experiencing winter, while Sydney is moving into their summer months. At my weather station, the current temperature as of 11/12/11 is 66 degrees Fahrenheit with a relative humidity of 94%, and dew point of 64 degrees Fahrenheit. In Denali currently (11/12/11), the temperature is 11 degrees Fahrenheit with a relative humidity of 91% and a dew point of 9 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Below are some weather maps to help illustrate weather conditions in each location. 

This is a weather forecast map of Alaska. This map is updating continually, but as of 11/15/11,
Denali is experiencing some high pressure, with some snow to the north.
There is an occluded front off the coast, and it looks like a cold front to the south.
Image obtained from: National Weather Service

This is a current weather map of Australia. This map is continually updating, but as of 11/15/11,
There is a high pressure system off the coast, but a low moving down from the north
Image obtained from: Weatherzone.com 

This is the IR satellite image of Alaska.
This image shows the cloud cover and the temperature of the clouds.
Image obtained from: The Weather Channel

This is a close up satellite image for the New South Wales and

Sydney region showing the cloud cover.

Image obtained from: www.weatherzone.com.au

Air Masses Affecting Sydney

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the major air mass affecting the weather of Sydney is the Tropical Maritime Tasman air mass, which comes out of the North Tasman Sea. This is a warm and moist air mass that is unstable. Often times, this air mass produces clouds and precipitation along the eastern coast of Australia. Since the Blue Mountains lie to the west of Sydney, there is a considerable amount of orographic uplift that occurs, which produces precipitation in the Sydney basin. This air mass influences Sydney most of the year, but diminishes slightly during the winter months. Similarly, the Southern Maritime air mass affects Sydney and brings cool and moist air that is unstable on the surface, but stable above. This produces cloudy weather along with some light precipitation. Another air mass that has the potential to affect Sydney is the Modified Polar Maritime. This air mass is cold, moist and unstable. It is coming up from the latitude of about 55 degrees south and has the potential to affect southern Australia and Sydney in the winter time. Warm and cold fronts play a integral role in the weather and climate of Sydney. As shown in the weather map below, there is a cold front in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. Sydney does experience mid-latitude cyclones that are associated with the Pacific Ocean. Mid-latitude cyclones bring high pressure to Sydney and the New South Wales coast and will generate high ocean swells along the coast. Since Sydney is located on the coast, the climate is regulated by the ocean and the maritime air mass associated with that. 


Below are some images of current weather maps for the Australian region.

This is a synoptic weather map showing the high and low pressure systems currently occurring in Australia. Sydney is currently right under a high pressure system, resulting in clear and dry conditions. There is a low pressure trough penetrating it's way down the eastern coast and making its way to Sydney and NSW. This low pressure trough will result in some cool wind and cloudy conditions, which may produce some precipitation over Sydney. You can also see the jet stream (light blue) drawing up cold air from the polar regions, which has the potential to affect the weather in Sydney.
Image obtained from: http://www.weatherzone.com.au

This is the current weather conditions for Australia. Currently, there is a high pressure system that is spinning counter clockwise over New South Wales where Sydney is located, which is producing dry and clear sky's. But as you can see, there is a low pressure trough to the north that will bring winds and some precipitation to the Sydney area around Wednesday November 2.
Image obtained from: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

      

This is a weather map showing high and low pressure systems along with the low pressure trough that will be affecting Sydney on Wednesday November 2. This map also shows a cold front off in the Tasman Sea, just south of Sydney and a warm front further west that is following in behind it.
Image obtained from: Australian Bureau of Meterology

Overview of Sydney

Sydney is the capital of the New South Wales Territory and is located in the southeast portion of Australia on the coast of the Tasman Sea. Sydney is located at latitude 33.9 degrees S and longitude 151.2 degrees E. Since Sydney lies right on the coast, the elevation is just above sea level. This produces a moderate coastal climate that is greatly influenced by the presence of the Pacific Ocean. The topography of Sydney is a coastal basin with the Pacific Ocean to the east and the Blue Mountains to the west. Sydney is located on a submergent coastline, which means it could be greatly affected by rising sea levels associated with the changing climate. Furthermore, one integral part of Sydney's climate is El Nino/La Nina and the Southern Oscillation, which can have a significant impact on the waters by Sydney, which in turn, will affect the amount of precipitation they receive along with the changes in seasonal and even diurnal temperatures. Currently, the temperature for this time of year in Sydney is very pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 70’s and lows in the upper 50’s. The overall mean temperature is 65 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average precipitation for the month of October is fairly high at 60 mm and a dew point of 51 degrees Fahrenheit. The average pressure for October is 29.95 inches at sea level. The coastal setting brings wind to the city with an average of 11 mph for October. Sydney has a temperate coastal climate. 


Below are some images to further describe the current weather conditions occurring in Australia as a whole, including Sydney.

This is the weather conditions along with cloud cover in Australia on Tuesday at 10:00am

Acquired from: www.weatherzone.com.au

This is the jet stream over Australia that plays a significant role in the weather they experience. Right now there is a trough in the east creating rain and storms in the Sydney area.

Acquired from: www.weatherzone.com.au

This is the temperature in Australia on Oct. 17. Sydney seems to be right about 60 degrees F.

                                   

                                                    Acquired from: http://www.wunderground.com/maps/au